Latin America's Potential: From Promises to Real Energy Leadership

Because the energy transition is not decreed, it is designed. Latin America does not need more diagnoses of its potential. Latin America keeps repeating to itself that it is destined to be a leader in renewable energy. Energy leadership is not a geographical accident, but a political, technical, and economic consequence. Scotland does not have more wind than Latin America has sun. Mexico shares and, in some cases, concentrates many of those advantages. In contrast, Latin America as a whole hovers around 60% renewable electricity generation, with a strong dependence on hydroelectric power, while Mexico remains below 30% in effective clean generation if certain debatable categories are excluded. What it does have is a crucial difference: it decided what to do with it. The potential is there, but leadership, not necessarily. Mexico illustrates this tension well. And that difference is measured in decisions. To understand it, it is worth looking to Scotland, from where I write this column today. And that is where the region still has a pending debt, because in energy, as in development, potential is not destiny, it is merely the starting point. The difference is not of resources, but of focus. Scotland understood that wind is not a competitive advantage until it becomes infrastructure, regulation, and certainty. However, there is a very big difference between having potential and exercising leadership. In other words, it stopped talking about its potential and started managing it. Latin America, in turn, remains trapped in an aspirational narrative. It needs discipline to turn it into reality. The resource is celebrated, but investment in networks is postponed. Latin America, as a whole, exceeds 650 million. Not because it is a perfect model, but because it is a clear case of how to turn a natural advantage into a country strategy. That is, it not only covers its demand but also exports surpluses. Scotland has a little over 5 million inhabitants. Mexico exceeds 120 million. The energy transition is spoken of, but without an institutional architecture to support it. The result is an increasingly visible paradox: countries with abundant sun and wind, but with electrical systems facing saturation, transmission delays, and vulnerability to demand peaks. It is not a problem of technical capabilities, but a problem of decisions. Scotland's lesson is not that we should copy its model, but that we must understand its logic, which consists of precisely identifying one's own strengths and, from there, building a consistent strategy over time. The arguments abound: one of the highest solar radiations on the planet, world-class wind corridors, abundant water resources, and a growing energy demand. Projects are announced, but they get lost in uncertain regulatory frameworks. This means investing in networks before they collapse, planning electrification before it surpasses us, and establishing clear rules that survive beyond political cycles. Mexico has one of the world's largest solar potentials and highly competitive wind zones, but it faces structural challenges in electrical infrastructure, regulatory certainty, and the integration of new technologies. It bet on clear goals, stability in public policies, and effective coordination between government, industry, and academia. Without abrupt changes, without contradictory signals, without improvisation. However, size has not been the determining factor. In 2022, Scotland generated the equivalent of more than 110 percent of its electricity consumption from renewable sources, driven mainly by wind energy, which represents more than three-quarters of the total.