The impact of conflicts is often analyzed in terms of security, energy, or political stability, but one of the most significant effects is observed in the global agricultural markets, particularly in the fertilizer market. Due to the strong interconnection between energy, maritime transport, and chemical production, any tension in that region can cause significant disruptions in the supply and prices of inputs, which are fundamental to agriculture. Natural gas is an essential component in the production of nitrogen fertilizers, especially ammonia and urea. The conclusion is clear: Latin America and the Caribbean need an urgent strategy for the prudent management of fertilizers. In the current situation, it is necessary to protect family farming and small and medium-sized producers; develop a regional supply policy with shared mechanisms for purchasing, storage, and negotiation; and, fundamentally, design a medium-term strategy to reduce dependence on imported fertilizers and implement policies for the sustainable use of biofertilizers. This requires producing more locally, diversifying sources, restoring industrial capacity, improving nutrient use efficiency, and incorporating bio-inputs and precision agriculture where feasible. In other countries in the region, such as Chile, Peru, or Colombia, external dependence is even greater. The World Bank reported that fertilizer prices rose by 6.5% in February 2026 compared to the previous month in a market already strained by production limitations, higher energy costs, and trade disruptions. When fertilizer prices rise too high, the impact on this sector is immediate and severe. For this reason, the increase in fertilizer costs can go beyond being simply bad news for the agricultural sector and become a direct threat to food security, the ability of families to remain in rural areas, and social cohesion in vast rural territories. Therefore, when a crisis causes oil and gas prices to rise, the production cost of fertilizers increases immediately, with direct consequences for the global supply. To this energy factor is added the importance of several countries in the Middle East as producers and exporters of fertilizers and chemical inputs for their production. These changes can lead to lower global grain and other agricultural product production, contributing to upward pressure on international food prices and consumer prices. The impact is particularly significant in Latin America, a region fundamental to global food production, but which paradoxically depends heavily on imported fertilizers. Even if production does not stop, the increase in transportation costs can significantly increase the final price paid by farmers in various countries. The consequences of these changes are quickly felt in the agricultural sector: when fertilizer prices rise significantly, farmers often respond by reducing their use or adjusting their planting plans. This can lead to lower yields per hectare and, in some cases, a reduction in the cultivated area. A large part of the global fertilizer trade passes through strategic routes near conflict zones, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, or the Suez Canal, true bottlenecks in world trade. If maritime security deteriorates, insurance companies increase ship coverage costs, shipowners modify routes to avoid high-risk areas, and transit times lengthen, increasing logistics costs. And behind all that, silently, is the fertilizer. These are millions of production units that generate employment, support rural communities, and supply a significant part of domestic markets. For example, Brazil imports approximately between 80% and 85% of the fertilizers used in its agriculture. The IICA has been collaborating with its partners in the field of science, technology, and innovation to use biotechnological tools and a systemic approach to scale up the efficiency of agricultural systems, increasing their productivity and nutritional contributions. Wars are not fought only on military fronts. In the medium term, this affects soil fertility. Argentina also depends heavily on imports, which represent almost 60% of its consumption. In other words: the impact could be more than just a momentary shake. According to data collected by the IICA, approximately 80% of agricultural holdings in Latin America and the Caribbean are small or family-based. At the same time, the International Energy Agency has been warning about the extreme sensitivity of energy and logistics markets to any disruption in the Gulf and along strategic maritime routes. If we do not act in time, the greatest cost will not be merely economic. The main countries of the Persian Gulf have large petrochemical complexes that produce ammonia, urea, and other nitrogen fertilizers for the international market. In many cases, gas represents between 70% and 80% of the total production cost. Historically, conflicts in the Middle East often have consequences that extend far beyond the region. The most commonly used industrial process to produce the basis for most nitrogen fertilizers—ammonia—consumes large quantities of natural gas. Iran is also a major exporter of urea. Another key factor is maritime transport. It is also felt in the price of bread, vegetables, corn, rice, and meat. It will be social, territorial, and food-related. Furthermore, in several countries, these holdings play an irreplaceable role in the production of fresh and staple foods.
