After seven years of anemic and endemic growth, and a 2025 characterized by political uncertainty and the destruction of the institutional framework, the first two months of 2026 have yielded figures that have set off alarms in financial markets, analysis areas, rating agencies, and academia: a contraction of economic activity and productive investment. This collapse is not an isolated event, but the culmination of a paralysis in the execution of public spending and a strategic withdrawal of private capital in an environment of great legal uncertainty. The 44.9% annual drop in productive investment during January and February 2026 represents the largest contraction for a similar period in over three decades. With our leading indicators of the Mexican economy (IGAE and IBEM), Bursamétrica forecasts an additional 0.5% contraction in the IGAE for February, and a 0.3% annual contraction in GDP for the first quarter. By the end of 2026, the gap between official and market projections is wide. Additionally, the financial cost of the debt could be affected by the effect of higher imported inflation derived from the war in Iran, which is not considered in the Pre-Criteria that project an inflation of 3.3% by the end of 2026. If Banxico or the market have to raise rates, there would be less margin for physical investment, both public and private. The risk lies in a greater deterioration in investor confidence and the threat of losing the investment grade, which could trigger a portfolio capital outflow, pressuring the peso towards levels of 19.50 or 20.00 units if the perception of sovereign risk increases. The Pre-Criteria 2027 document sent to Congress on April 1, 2026, paints a picture of moderate optimism, but with necessary adjustments in critical variables. Mexico is at a crossroads. While the macroeconomic framework presented in the Pre-Criteria seeks to project order and fiscal responsibility, the reality of the street economy and industrial projects suggests that the recovery will be slow. For 2027 not to be another year of stagnation, the Mexican State must move from a policy of 'transitory adjustments' to one of structural certainty. The strategy outlined in the Pre-Criteria 2027 points to a 'fiscal consolidation' that would bring the deficit to 3.0% of GDP for the next year. This goal is perceived as ambitious. But the participation of public investment is minuscule. From the private perspective, the situation is more serious, the outlook is one of extreme caution. We are also seeing a contraction in construction, not just heavy construction, but in building. The impact of this investment crisis on GDP has been immediate. The steep drop in investment in the first two months of 2026 is a symptom of an economy that has exhausted its inertia and requires new engines. The risk of a 'technical recession' in the first half of the year is real if the reactivation of public spending, promised for the second quarter, does not materialize with the necessary speed. The investment collapse occurs at a time of vulnerability for public finances. The Federal Government faces the challenge of reducing the fiscal deficit, estimated to close 2026 at 4.1% of GDP, and continue to clean up the finances of Pemex. While the 2027 Economic Policy Pre-Criteria maintain a growth range of 1.8% to 2.8% for this year (2.3% point), the consensus of private analysts and organizations like the IMF has adjusted their expectations to a range of 1.1% to 1.5%, and it is foreseeable that we will soon see downward revisions. The fall in investment reduces the long-term growth potential, and therefore, the future collection capacity. In January 2026, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) registered a 0.9% drop, dragged mainly by the construction and heavy manufacturing sectors. The public component has been the most affected, with an annual reduction of over 30%. According to the Executive, dependencies paused tenders to adapt to the new guidelines of 'social infrastructure', which generated an execution gap in the first 60 days of the year. Gross fixed investment in machinery and equipment shows setbacks, affected by the interruption of nearshoring projects awaiting clear definitions on the review of USMCA and the stability of the rules of the game in the energy and logistics sectors. The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), attributes this bump to the operational transition towards the Law to Promote Investment in Infrastructure for Well-being.
