The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for the Mexican economy for 2024 upwards from 1.5% to 1.6%. For 2026, the estimate was also increased from 2.1% to 2.2%. Despite the revision, the IMF maintains a less optimistic outlook than the Mexican government, which forecasts growth of between 1.8% and 2.9% for this year. The consensus forecast, in turn, estimates growth of just 1.8%, slightly below the fund's estimate. In its April report, the IMF emphasized the persistent uncertainty surrounding the outbreak of war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which poses a risk to the global economy: 'Once again, the world economy is at risk of destabilization,' it noted. The fund recalled that the magnitude of the shock to the global economy will depend on the duration and scope of the conflict, and on the time it takes for energy production and transportation to normalize after hostilities end. The Mexican government expects the conflict not to last more than two months and to have a limited effect on public finances. In contrast, the consensus of analysts surveyed by Citi estimates an expansion of 1.4%. For the coming year, the government's forecast also appears optimistic, with an estimated growth range of between 1.9 and 2.9%. Additionally, it is betting on the boost from projects such as Plan México and the infrastructure program to reactivate investment, which fell 6.7% annually.
