Global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2026 and decrease to 3.7% in 2027, which will require upward revisions for both years. The adverse scenario, with higher and more persistent increases in energy prices, considers that global growth could slow to 2.5% in 2026 and inflation could rise to 5.4%. Under a more severe scenario, where there is greater damage to energy infrastructure in the conflict region and it extends throughout the year, global growth could be as low as 2% in 2026, while inflation would expand above 6% in 2027. The next update of the economic outlook will be in July. In the absence of war, global growth could have been revised upward from 3.3% to 3.4% as projected in the January WEO, and given the uncertainty of the situation, the institution designed several scenarios regarding the duration of the war and its impact on global growth and inflation. The reference scenario assumes the war will have a limited duration, intensity, and scope, so that disruptions will dissipate by mid-2026, with global growth estimated at 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027, slower than its recent pace of approximately 3.4% in 2024-25. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for global economic growth to 3.1% in 2026, 0.2 points below what was projected last January, and kept it for 2027 at 3.2%, in its reference scenario where the war in the Middle East and its effects dissipate by mid-2026. However, in the face of uncertainty about the duration and scope of the situation, the more severe scenario considers a growth of only 2% this year and inflation of over 6% in 2027, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. "We are between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario, and with each day that passes with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we get closer to the adverse scenario," said Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, director of the IMF's Research Department at a conference. "The impact on emerging markets and developing economies could be almost double that in advanced economies," he warned. Obstacles derived from higher trade barriers and high uncertainty have been offset by factors such as investment in technology, favorable financial conditions, and the support of fiscal and monetary policies in certain countries, the body noted. Food and energy prices on the rise. Under the reference estimate, energy commodity prices will increase by 19% in 2026 with global GDP growth of only 3.1% this year, as well as inflation of 4.4%. Oil prices are expected to rise by 21.4% due to disruptions in production and transportation in the Middle East; the average oil price was calculated at $82 per barrel, while natural gas prices are anticipated to be the most affected due to the technical complexity of restoring production and lower comparative reserve levels. Furthermore, the IMF pointed out that food prices will also increase more than projected in October 2025, due to higher energy and fertilizer prices, disruption of maritime routes, and increased transportation costs.
