The current situation in the world is disrupted by an unprecedented pandemic in a century, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme weather phenomena. This has led to disruptions in supply chains, energy and food crises, prompting governments to take unprecedented measures to protect lives and livelihoods.
The International Monetary Fund has maintained its growth estimates for the global economy at 3.2 percent for both 2024 and 2025. For the United States, a growth of 2.8 percent is expected in 2024 and 2.2 percent in 2025, while the eurozone will grow by 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year. India expects growth of 7 percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025, China 4.8 and 4.5 percent respectively, and Brazil 3 and 2.2 percent in the same period.
Negative supply shocks since 2020 have had lasting effects on production and inflation globally, with varying impacts on countries. The differences between advanced and developing economies are noteworthy, with the latter being more vulnerable to sharp increases in commodity prices.
Regarding Mexico, the IMF projects a growth of 1.5 percent in 2024, which will slow down to 1.3 percent in 2025 due to weakening domestic demand. A more restrictive fiscal stance is expected in 2025, which will impact the country's economic growth.
The IMF estimates an annual inflation rate of 4.7 percent for Mexico this year and 3.8 percent in 2025. Additionally, a current account deficit is expected to rise from 0.7 percent of GDP in 2024 to 0.9 percent in 2025, along with an increase in the unemployment rate from 3 to 3.3 percent in the same period. The last four years have posed a challenge to the global economy, testing its resilience.
