According to data published by INEGI, inflation in Mexico had a slight uptick during the first half of October, reaching 4.69% year-on-year, compared to the previously recorded 4.5%. This increase was expected by specialists due to typical seasonal pressures. In the biweekly period, inflation stood at 0.43%.
The items that contributed most to the increases during this period were fruits and vegetables, at 1.94%, and energy, at 2.25%. On an annual basis, these components presented figures of 12.81% and 3.81%, respectively.
Despite this uptick, analysts from Citibanamex indicate that overall inflation will continue to gradually decrease towards the end of the year, reaching 4.4%. This is mainly due to the behavior of core inflation, which recorded a biweekly increase of 0.23%, the lowest for a fortnight since 2020.
In the words of experts, "Abrupt increases in these prices (agricultural) tend to reverse in the short term at least partially, so we estimate a gradual decrease in non-core annual inflation for the coming fortnights."
In this scenario, the market anticipates that the Bank of Mexico will reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points during its November meeting and by an additional measure in the December meeting, which would lead the interest rate to close the year at 10%.
