Despite the uncertainties generated by the change of administration, Joaquín Barrera, director of Fixed Income and Investments at Sura Investments, highlighted that rating agencies make decisions based on concrete data, particularly fiscal data, and not on political perceptions. Barrera stated during the forum "Meet Point Virtual: Government Change: What Are Markets Expecting?" organized by El Financiero that "Credit agencies do not make rating decisions based on political perceptions, not even on opinions."
In line with these perspectives, Barrera affirmed that no immediate action is expected from agencies that would impact Mexico's sovereign rating. According to him, "We do not see a short-term decrease in Mexico's credit rating, and we estimate that the investment grade will remain, at least in the near future."
It was noted that the economic package for 2025, which is scheduled to be presented in November, will be fundamental to evaluate Mexico's public finances as the new government of Claudia Sheinbaum begins to outline its policies. Barrera expressed that it will be vital for the budget to maintain long-term fiscal balance to reduce the current public deficit close to 6% of GDP.
Valentín Martínez Rico, vice president of Value Offering at Sura Investments, mentioned that attention will focus on how the government will manage to reduce the promised fiscal deficit to 3.5% or even 3% of GDP. Martínez Rico warned about the challenge of not affecting economic growth while abruptly reducing the deficit.
Financial sector specialists agree that Mexico's credit rating will not experience significant changes in the short term.
