Enrique Quintana, editorial director of El Financiero, raises various uncertainties about the future of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) that still lack clear answers. Two issues that have gained relevance, mainly with the rise of violence in Sinaloa, are insecurity and organized crime, which are having a direct impact on medium and small businesses.
Quintana points out that the slow pace of interest rate reductions could negatively affect expectations, along with a series of other unfavorable factors. One of these key elements is the projected fiscal deficit of 6 percent for the year 2024, with difficulties in reducing it to 3 percent, which negatively influences investors' perceptions.
Moreover, the distant relationship with the United States, pressures on issues such as migration, fentanyl, and trade with China, have deterred potential investors. The renegotiation of the USMCA is also a critical point, being perceived as a future risk factor according to Quintana, especially if Donald Trump is reelected.
Regarding Mexico, the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund reveal a widespread sense of pessimism looking towards 2025. Various aspects concerning global investors and rating agencies have altered their perspective on the country, generating alarms and obstacles for economic growth and job creation.
Among the factors alarming investors are issues such as extortion and the collection of protection fees, which negatively impact investment outlooks. This is compounded by persistent inflation, especially in the services sector, as well as the controversial approval of the judicial reform that increases uncertainty in the business realm. In conclusion, Quintana suggests that the lack of clarity regarding Pemex's financial situation and the absence of decisive measures to improve it paint a discouraging picture for the Mexican economy.
