In the 2016 elections, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton and won the presidency of the United States. After taking office, the exchange rate went from 18.60 to 20.90 Mexican pesos per dollar, reaching nearly 22 pesos. It was a moment when the depreciation of the peso was 18 percent in the three months following the election.
Currently, uncertainty about the future of the exchange rate in Mexico for the end of 2024 is present. According to a survey by the Bank of Mexico, it is estimated that the peso could close the year near 19.69 units per dollar. Meanwhile, previous forecasts placed the closing at 19.10 units, indicating a possible increase in market volatility.
Despite current preferences and polls showing Trump strengthening, it is still unclear who will emerge victorious in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. Mexico has expressed its willingness to cooperate with whoever is elected, but a possible second term for Trump could pose greater challenges for the country in economic and political terms, according to Enrique Quintana.
The possibility that the Mexican peso could devalue against the dollar again, as in 2016, remains. The imminence of the U.S. elections has increased uncertainty in financial markets, and analysts predict that the peso-dollar exchange rate could reach 21 pesos in November. Market volatility and political uncertainty are factors that could influence currency fluctuations in the coming months.
