The Mexican economy is experiencing a slower pace at the end of 2024, which aligns with the IMF's forecast. To accelerate growth and reverse the slowdown, it is necessary to increase public and private investment, but the latter requires conditions of certainty in institutions and the rule of law.
The current president is limited by past decisions, forcing her to maintain a restrictive policy. López Obrador's administration left a new power elite that hinders market functioning and maintains practices of opacity.
In the first quarter of 2023, the economy grew by 3.6%, followed by 3.5%, 3.4%, and 2.3% in the remaining quarters. In 2024, annual growth was 1.8% and 1.0% in the first and second quarters respectively. The IMF lowered its growth projections for Mexico to 1.5% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025, confirming a prolonged slowdown.
The administration faces the challenge of insecurity and political conflicts and must design strategies to accelerate growth. Productive investment is crucial for sustained growth, but insecurity and lack of trust limit private investment.
Indicators such as the IGAE show a growth of 0.4% in August, with sectors such as construction experiencing a contraction. Reduced public investment impacts sectors like transportation and urbanization, where the decrease was 47.4%.
It is necessary to prioritize productive investment to accelerate economic growth, rather than solely relying on cash transfers or current expenditures. Although Mexico is not in recession, the downward trend in economic growth is concerning and requires immediate action.
Data from INEGI reveals that the disparity in construction has fallen by 15.6% year-on-year, highlighting the importance of this sector in the Mexican economy. It is crucial to generate policies that promote investment and improve conditions to foster sustained economic growth.
