After experiencing a slowdown in project launches due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, shopping centers are preparing for a new cycle of development. Currently, a recovery is observed, bringing with it an increase of 1.3 million square meters of gross leasable area compared to 2019, a year in which stories of vacancies, unpaid rents, and delays in the launch of new developments were affected.
A report prepared by Mac Arquitectos Consultores, based on information from Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and public real estate companies in Mexico participating in this market, highlights the growth potential on the horizon. In addition to previously postponed projects that will be launched to the market, the incorporation of 15 new shopping centers is expected in the pipeline, adding a total of 300 thousand square meters to the market between 2025 and 2026, not considering new developments that may start during that period.
At the end of the first half of the year, the current commercial portfolio, composed of 8.05 million square meters distributed across 328 shopping centers, recorded an occupancy of 92.8%, driven by a rebound in consumption, availability of credit, and the expansion processes of these properties. It is also noteworthy that the current level of occupancy is partly due to the fact that not everything available corresponds to profitable locations or concepts.
The outlook for the coming years shows a pace that will add between 300 and 400 thousand leasable square meters, indicating a recovery for a market that had to adapt and face new consumption habits and sales channels in addition to physical stores. The current dynamic does not lead to imminent saturation, as the commercial ratio remains at 23.4 square meters per 100 urban inhabitants, having experienced a growth of 2% in the last four years. These ongoing developments reflect the ongoing transformation in the shopping center market.
