Gabriela Siller Pagaza, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE, has analyzed the possible consequences of the immigration policies that the elected president of the United States, Donald Trump, could implement. According to her statements, she believes that the mass deportation of migrants is unlikely, as the impact on the labor force would be significant, affecting both the migrants and the U.S. economy. However, Siller warns that the increase in tariffs on Mexican products is a real threat that could be carried out as a coercive measure.
Regarding tariffs, Siller states that this measure could affect American companies that depend on migrant labor, leading to an increase in production costs. Despite this, she asserts that the tariffs would be temporary due to existing trade agreements between both countries. The director of Economic Analysis points out that Mexico would be the most affected by these measures, given the context of economic slowdown it is experiencing.
Siller also emphasizes the importance of a possible renegotiation of the treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada, which she anticipates will be a difficult process. Furthermore, she highlights that Trump might attempt to stem the migratory flow by imposing tariffs and modifying trade relations with Mexico, especially in comparison with Canada and China, a country with which there is also a trade conflict.
In another aspect, the impact that mass deportation would have on Mexican families receiving remittances is addressed. Siller mentions that approximately 40% of recipient families could be affected, which would represent a tragic scenario for family economics in Mexico. She highlights that, although the majority of remittance receivers are presumed to have legal documentation in the United States, it is difficult to calculate exactly how many of these remittances would stop coming in the event of mass deportation.
In summary, the statements of Gabriela Siller Pagaza highlight the complexity of the economic and social consequences that could arise from the immigration and trade policies proposed by the new U.S. government.
