The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) has recently been criticized for overestimating Mexico's economic growth in the Economic Package 2025. According to the Economic Policy Criteria provided by Finance, the country's economy is expected to grow between 2 and 3 percent for the next year. This estimation has raised concerns among experts, as lower projections have been presented by international organizations such as the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the World Bank.
Former presidential candidate Ricardo Anaya has pointed out that these overestimations could negatively impact the fiscal deficit, which is expected to be reduced to 3.2 percent in 2025. According to Anaya, the global trend is downward in terms of economic growth, and it is crucial to adjust the estimates to avoid financial difficulties in the future.
The Economic Package 2025 includes a budget of 9.3 trillion pesos for public coffers, with 5.3 trillion coming from tax payments. It is expected that social programs will receive 835 billion pesos, including initiatives such as the Rita Cetina Scholarship and the Pension for Women aged 60 to 64. Additionally, 40 billion pesos will be allocated for the consolidation of the Maya Train, a project promoted by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Regarding the exchange rate, it is expected that the dollar will have a higher value in 2025, with projections indicating that it could reach 18.5 units by the end of the year. These figures differ significantly from previous estimates by Finance, which has raised concerns about the accuracy of government economic predictions.
In this line, Ricardo Anaya has warned about the need to be realistic in economic estimates, emphasizing that overestimating revenues could seriously affect public finances. Organizations such as the International Monetary Fund have presented more conservative projections, indicating the importance of adjusting expectations to ensure solid and sustainable financial management in the future.
