The Economic Package 2025 presented by the Ministry of Finance includes a projection that the dollar will drop to 19.70 pesos by the end of 2024, with a gain of 64 cents before the end of the year, and will close at 18.50 pesos by the end of 2025. According to the experts consulted, a closing of 19.80 pesos for the dollar is expected in 2024, showing similarities with the general consensus, but for 2025 it is anticipated that the average exchange rate will be 20.21 pesos at the close.
In relation to these forecasts, various analysts have classified the Economic Package 2025 as "optimistic." It has been noted that indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the exchange rate may face challenges in achieving the proposed goals. Despite the data presented by the Government, experts from Citibanamex have published different results in their latest survey, projecting lower economic growth and an exchange rate different from expected.
The Government anticipates GDP growth for 2024 between 1.5 and 2.5 percent, while the Citibanamex survey estimates an average of 1.5 percent. For 2025, the Ministry of Finance estimates a growth of three percent, with a midpoint of 2.5 percent, compared to the estimate from Citibanamex experts, which is one percent. This difference, according to columnist Enrique Quintana, could have a significant impact on the public deficit, representing 4.16 percent of GDP if growth is lower.
In summary, the Economic Package 2025 presents ambitious projections regarding the exchange rate and economic growth, but the discrepancy with experts' estimates opens the debate about the realism of these goals.
