The tariff measures announced by Donald Trump will impact the exchange rate in Mexico, which currently stands at 20.38 pesos per dollar. The fiscal spending of the U.S. last year reached 6.75 trillion dollars. Despite these statements, the cuts by the Federal Reserve were unaffected, as they adjusted the reference rate to 4.50%.
The elected president of the U.S. has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on Mexican exports if the country does not resolve the migration crisis and drug trafficking. Experts point out that Trump's economic policies will have a significant impact on the financial market and on emerging currencies, especially on the Mexican peso against the dollar.
According to a report from CI Banco, the measures announced by Trump during his campaign, along with the appointments in his cabinet, will generate an increase in market volatility. It is expected that the changes implemented by the Trump administration will have repercussions on the global economy and the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding inflation and interest rate cuts.
The credit rating agencies S&P and Fitch, in addition to Trump's actions, could affect the exchange rate in Mexico, especially following the presentation of the 2025 economic package and the fiscal deficit proposed by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. It is expected that the economic policies announced by Trump will start to have an effect once he assumes office.
Regarding specific measures, it is anticipated that Trump will implement tax cuts and eliminate regulations through the Department of Government Efficiency, which will be led by Elon Musk. This department will aim to reduce the number of federal agencies in the U.S. and cut the federal budget by 2 trillion dollars.
During the week, the Mexican peso remained on the radar of the financial market due to the interest rate cut carried out by the Bank of Mexico, the presentation of the 2025 economic package by the Ministry of Finance, and the rating granted by Moody's to the Mexican economy. Moody's changed Mexico's rating outlook from 'stable' to 'negative,' although it maintained the rating at Baa2.
