The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported that the hurricane and rain season of 2025 will begin in Mexico on May 15, with the possibility of up to 37 named cyclones, of which 10 could reach category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. According to the head of the SMN, Fabián Vázquez Romaña, greater cyclonic activity is expected in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic due to neutral conditions of the ENSO phenomenon throughout most of the year.
In the Pacific Ocean, between 8 and 9 tropical storms are forecasted, 4 to 5 hurricanes of category 1 and 2, and 4 to 6 hurricanes of categories 3, 4, and 5. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, between 7 and 8 tropical storms are expected, 3 to 4 hurricanes of category 1 and 2, and 3 to 4 hurricanes of categories 3, 4, and 5.
Historically, an average of five cyclones impacting Mexico are formed per season, with three in the Pacific and two in the Atlantic. However, these figures may vary depending on climatic conditions. The states with the highest frequency of cyclonic impact in the last 61 years are Baja California Sur, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, and Veracruz.
In 2024, 18 cyclones were recorded in the Atlantic, eight of which affected Mexico, and 12 in the Pacific, with Hurricane John being the most destructive, having a double impact on national territory. In addition, the SMN indicated that the rainy season, which will extend from May 15 to November 30, will have below-average precipitation in the center and south of the country, while the north will remain within normal levels.
It is recommended to monitor two risk regions: the Mexican Pacific coast and the western Caribbean Sea, due to the potential for rapid intensification of cyclones in those areas.
