The annual emissions gap report from the United Nations Environment Programme reveals that the world is on track to warm by 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 Fahrenheit) more than current levels unless countries fulfill all the promised measures to combat climate change.
Despite efforts, reducing this forecast by half a degree will not be enough to avoid the most severe impacts of global warming, such as more intense heatwaves, wildfires, storms, and droughts. Considering different scenarios, the report highlights that unless significant cuts in fossil fuel burning are made, it will be practically impossible to keep warming within internationally established limits.
Since the mid-19th century, the world has already experienced a warming of 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), surpassing previous estimates. It is projected that if current trends continue, global temperatures will rise by 3.1 degrees Celsius (5.6 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.
However, there is a possibility of limiting this increase to 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) if countries meet their commitments made to the United Nations. In an even more optimistic scenario with drastic emission reductions and net-zero carbon emissions after mid-century, there is a 23% chance of keeping warming below the key target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The 2015 Paris Agreement established this goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Despite this positive scenario, the report suggests that it is more likely that warming will stabilize at 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
For the report's lead editor, Anne Olhoff, it is crucial to act before 2030 if global temperatures are to be reduced. She emphasizes that the time to take action is now if the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius is to be preserved as an acceptable limit in the fight against climate change.
