Tariffs could cause severe economic damage and political tensions in the United States. In light of this possibility, the Mexican government needs to accelerate actions against cartels and in immigration control. Significant blows to criminal groups and visible advances in the management of migratory flows could deter the imposition of tariffs. The need for internal allies, such as affected businesses, is also crucial. Although tariffs may not be applied in the short term, the threat will remain, including the review of the USMCA in the next four years.
In 2019, Trump used the possibility of tariffs as a pressure tool on Mexico regarding immigration issues. This could raise prices of essential goods and reduce purchasing power, going against Trump's interests. However, the imposition of tariffs seems to be disconnected from other considerations.
Possible reasons for the imposition of tariffs include the fight against trade deficits, which Trump considers harmful to the United States. Additionally, tariffs could affect the competitiveness of companies and have economic consequences in border states like Texas and California. From a political standpoint, Trump could strengthen his electoral base by fulfilling his campaign promises.
On the other hand, there are arguments against the tariffs Trump threatens to impose on Mexico. This could conflict with USMCA rules and generate legal and diplomatic complications. Furthermore, tariffs could negatively impact American consumers and supply chains, especially in sectors like automotive and electronics.
Although speculation exists about the possible date for the implementation of tariffs, Trump may be studying the trade situation before taking definitive actions. This strategy seems contrary to the motto of his trade policy "America First Trade Policy." There is uncertainty about whether tariffs will be imposed and what their impact will be on trade relations between Mexico and the United States.
