The Mexican government has found an effective negotiation tool in response to the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration as a response to the migration crisis. Instead of falling into a tariff war that would only prolong the crisis, Mexico could condition its cooperation on migration matters to the elimination of those tariffs, thus changing the landscape of the dispute.
According to experts in international negotiations, President Trump often uses crises like the current one to obtain political concessions, rather than acting based on ideological principles regarding international trade. In this sense, Mexico has the opportunity to rewrite the rules of the game and change the power equation in negotiations.
If Mexico decides to suspend its cooperation on the return of non-Mexican migrants, the U.S. would face an internal migration crisis that would increase political and administrative costs for the Trump administration. This could expose the vulnerability of the U.S. to an uncontrolled migration crisis, showing that the key to resolving the conflict lies in the migration issue and not in trade.
A potential strategy for Mexico would be to force the U.S. to take on the operational burden of deported migrants, especially those who cannot be returned to their countries of origin. This would not only shift the focus of the conflict but also strengthen Mexico's negotiating position at the discussion table.
In this vein, a coordinated response with Canada, which has also been affected by the tariffs, would strengthen Mexico's position in negotiations. It is crucial to avoid a tariff escalation that would only benefit Trump's protectionist rhetoric and reinforce his nationalist stance.
In summary, Mexico has the opportunity to transform the migration crisis into a problem for the Trump administration if it strategically uses its negotiation power in the migration field, avoiding falling into tariff provocations and seeking to redefine the rules of the game to its advantage.
