In the context of tours he leads across various states of the country, Morena's Secretary of Organization, Andy López Beltrán, has begun to notice a problem that he now discusses with other figures of the 'Fourth Transformation' (4T): a stagnation among the recipients of social programs delivered by the ruling party, for which he demands changes in the delegations maintained by the Secretariat of Well-being in different states.
This concern is natural for the leader of Morena: a large part of the party's mobilization structure and territorial power, known as the 'guinda' party, depends on sectors that receive social support from various governments.
However, Andy López Beltrán warns that these aspirations could pose a risk to the 4T. During his recent visit to Sonora, the son of the former president alerted to another problem: the existence of municipal and state social programs (in addition to federal ones) creates competition with the aid coming from the national government, and the opposition uses this to strengthen its own figures by reiterating that the aid does not come from the 'guinda' party, but from the authorities in power.
If this direct aid delivery stops, is delayed, or stagnates, the same could happen to the internal Secretariat of Organization, and therefore, to its power in the ruling coalition.
For this reason, the son of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is beginning to demand changes in the delegations that the Secretary of Well-being, Ariadna Montiel, has in different states. Within the 4T, there is a political alliance between Ariadna Montiel and the president of Morena, Luisa María Alcalde, so the change demands already expressed by the Secretary of Organization also affect his party colleague, with whom there are already political and project differences.
One of the problems, the 'guinda' leader warns, is that the delegates of social programs (as those holding the position are called) are more concerned about the 2027 elections—either to compete for their own position or to support a particular candidacy—than in strengthening the state well-being structure.
Over the past few years, the people in charge of distributing social programs have become some of the strongest and most important in the 4T for two main reasons. First, the resources they manage and the social aid they provide, which allows for significant operations and social exposure. Second, the reach of the secretariat, which is one of the few with offices in almost every city and town in the country.
This is observed, sources close to Andy repeat, in the little political activity these delegates would carry out among the people waiting to receive their card, and in the scarce propaganda made around them. At the same time, the problem that Andy López Beltrán warns about is not limited to the Secretariat of Well-being. The recent elections in Durango, where the PRI retained much of its power, partly due to the same aid delivered by the 'tricolor' party, are causing concern within Morena.
This is linked to the previous issue, they say in the 4T. In this way, these tensions could deepen the existing divisions as the midterm elections approach. A form of polarization that weakens the electoral chances of the 4T.
