Security experts warn that following the death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias 'El Mencho', the organization could either reorganize peacefully or unleash a violent power struggle. According to security researcher Andrés Sumano, there are two possible scenarios for the CJNG: a peaceful negotiation to appoint a successor or an open confrontation between factions. In the latter case, he warns, it would lead to an 'aggravation' of the country's security crisis. However, he sees a 'peaceful' succession as 'more likely' since no 'betrayal' has occurred within the cartel. Security consultant David Saucedo agrees that the CJNG could 'retract permanently', but warns that this hypothetical 'period of calm' could be a 'preparation for war' between factions and against rival cartels. 'I think at some point the CJNG will want to choose a leadership. It still maintains a near-monolithic presence in much of Mexico,' the researcher from the College of the Northern Border emphasized. Experts also note that the February 22 operation to eliminate El Mencho was a significant but not 'definitive' blow to the cartel, considering its enormous scale. They believe the leader's death will not reduce the CJNG's fentanyl shipments to the US; on the contrary, export volumes could increase to prepare for the inevitable war. 'This situation will lead to a break, and they will start a war among themselves,' Saucedo concluded. He also anticipates that Mexico will experience 'traumatic events' with an 'enormous' impact on its security, though not on the scale of the Sinaloa Cartel's fracture.
