If gubernatorial elections were held today, Morena would lose five governorships and face a process with a fractured governing coalition, an internal rebellion, and the possibility that at least three more governorships would remain in the hands of the opposition. However, Mier is a soldier of López, evidenced by the lobbying and pressure he exerted on Morena's senators to travel recently to Ciudad Juárez for the virtual launch of Chávez as a gubernatorial candidate. The president directly blames Senator López and the coordinator of Morena in the Chamber of Deputies, Ricardo Monreal, for the failures in achieving her legislative reforms. In private meetings, she has accused him of allying with the opposition to inflict a defeat she considers personal, political, and historical, after her Plan A was rejected and she was given a Plan B that is a distorted version of what López Obrador and she wanted. The president has given instructions – although there are no indications yet that they have been carried out – to cancel all possibilities for the Monreal family in politics, with a direct dedication to Senator Saúl Monreal, who, against the rule that prohibits nepotism in candidacies, has shown his intention to run for governor of Zacatecas, with the PT or the Verde. It is not known if there have been formal approaches with Colosio. In the report to the president, Chihuahua is not mentioned, which will also have gubernatorial elections next year and is in the hands of the PAN, which suggests that Morena will keep the governorship, although, as in the case of Guerrero, where it will also be at stake, there are internal variables that could create a problem for Sheinbaum, who will face a referendum on her government and an evaluation of the obradorist regime in the 2027 elections. In Chihuahua, two forces are facing off: that of the mayor of Ciudad Juárez, Cruz Pérez, but in recent weeks, with new alliances of people close to the president with Senator Adán Augusto López, the position of Senator Andrea Chávez has been strengthened, who, despite the president's animosity, has not been derailed by the leader of Morena, Luisa María Alcalde. López left the coordination of the caucus in the Senate, but not the power. A break in the governing coalition would automatically cancel the qualified majority. In the diagnosis delivered to the president, there is no anticipation of the possibility of the PAN losing the governorships of Querétaro and Aguascalientes, as is predicted in Nuevo León, where the analysis is that Governor Samuel García will impose his wife, Mariana Rodríguez, as his successor. This is a scenario that the president has considered for several weeks, which led her to order the recruitment of Senator Luis Donaldo Colosio as a Morena candidate, as an emergency alternative. This scenario presented to the president would be a hard blow to the regime and the probable beginning of the end of its power, derailed by its own internal decomposition just 12 years after conquering it. The wear and tear on power, the deplorable management of several of its governors, added to the lack of leadership and negotiation capacity in the National Palace, are the first snapshot of next year's elections, which are considered crucial for the consolidation of the project of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who wants to complete it with his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. This scenario is contemplated in a diagnosis delivered to President Sheinbaum last week and evaluations made in Morena, where, since the beginning of this year, they have registered the risks they face not only in the governorships but also to maintain a qualified majority in Congress. The report to the president, focused on the governorships, became known, and it mainly concerned her in three states: Campeche, Michoacán, and San Luis Potosí. The report highlights that the management of Layda Sansores in Campeche has opened the door to the opposition, in the event of a possible alliance between Citizen's Movement and the PAN, to the real possibility of removing Morena from power, just as in Michoacán, where the government of Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla is very poorly rated and, regardless of which candidate the ruling party presents, the forecast is that Grecia Quiroz, mayor of Uruapan and widow of the murdered mayor Carlos Manzo, will win. One of the delicate points in the report delivered to the president is San Luis Potosí, where the allied governor Ricardo Gallardo, from the Verde Party, is intransigent in accepting a candidacy to succeed him that is not his wife, Senator Ruth González, who has her own political merits. Quintana Roo is not currently among the states where Morena could lose, but it enters the equation along with Zacatecas and Baja California Sur, which are also not currently on the list of losing states, where the PT says it has the strength to win the governorships. The two parties have begun to propose an institutional break in the governing coalition, and their private conversations were made known to the president in the report they gave her. The anti-nepotism rule in force in the statutes of Morena is not binding on the allied parties, the Verde and the PT, and Gallardo has said privately and publicly that he is willing to break with Morena for next year's elections, confident – judging by opinion polls – that he will win by a wide margin. Gallardo's position has strengthened a current of opinion within the Verde Party to go to the elections without Morena, particularly in Quintana Roo, where they believe they can win without its support. Sheinbaum failed to send him to an embassy due to pressure from the United States to initiate an investigation file against him, and she only managed to appoint Ignacio Mier in his place. He does not seem willing to make the sacrifice, as is the position of Senator Félix Salgado Macedonio, who is beginning to hint that he will fight to succeed his daughter in the governorship of Guerrero. The defeats in the governorships could be a domino effect that gives victories to the opposition and the rebels of the coalition, with which the qualified majority in Congress would pass into history.
