American society faces a division similar to or greater than in the last three elections, which could have significant implications for Mexico in terms of relationships and economy. Issues such as investments, tariffs, migration, security, and drug trafficking will be fundamental in future negotiations. There is a threat of direct intervention in Mexico by Trump to combat the cartels, which raises concerns due to his unpredictability. A second foreign intervention would be catastrophic for Mexican sovereignty.
The gap between Trump and Kamala Harris in the U.S. polls is minimal, indicating a technical tie. The electoral process through state electoral colleges adds a level of complexity to the process. There is speculation about the possibility that Trump may seek protection in the U.S. and negotiate his resignation from there, which could have significant repercussions for Mexico.
Regarding the internal situation in Mexico, the governor of Sinaloa is in a delicate position due to the violence affecting the region. In the context of the election, Trump has a significant advantage concerning electoral votes, primarily due to support from so-called "swing states." A possible return of Trump to the White House would have a more radical character, influenced by the persecution experienced during his first term and the rejection of the "woke" culture pushed by the Democrats.
