In a debate between the leader of the Morena legislators, Adán Augusto López, and the president of the PAN, Marko Cortés, the former governor of Tabasco expressed that the opposition would take at least fifty years to obtain the qualified majorities needed to change the Constitution and reverse the reforms made by Morena.
It is common for the parties in power, especially with the overwhelming majorities obtained by Morena, to believe that this situation will last for decades. However, they could only achieve this if they eliminate fundamental aspects of democracy such as free elections and independent state bodies, just as leaders like Vladimir Putin, Fidel and Raúl Castro, Daniel Ortega, or Nicolás Maduro have done. When these regimes fail to undermine the foundations of democracy, their permanence in power is more ephemeral than they believe.
Listening to Adán Augusto López, I recalled the words of José Ángel Gurría in 1994 about the duration of the government he represented, expressing a similar idea that later proved to be false. The perspective of eternal government control often generates arrogance and myopia, preventing a clear view of reality and leading to erroneous decisions that cost them power.
In Mexico and other countries, those who believed we were at the 'end of history' after the fall of the Soviet bloc allowed the emergence of anti-system movements that eventually took power in various parts of the world. Political cycles are inevitable and changing, and Morena could face multiple challenges that weaken its strength.
An economic crisis, internal divisions, conflicts with the United States, loss of credibility in the government narrative, legal issues with reforms, a strong opposition, among other factors, could weaken Morena much sooner than imagined. It is possible that the 50 years of constant majority could be drastically shortened if unexpected situations or challenges arise within the party.
While a significant fracture in Morena is not yet in sight, modern political cycles show that changes can be rapid and surprising. Those who believe the current government will last decades may be taken by surprise when facts prove otherwise, and the implemented reforms turn against them.
