The latest trends show an increase in support for Donald Trump's candidacy ahead of the elections in the United States. Although it remains a close race and anything can happen, the momentum seems to be in favor of the current president. Despite Mexico's official stance of working with whoever is elected, a Trump victory would considerably complicate the economic and political environment for the country.
The warnings and threats issued by Trump are seen by some as mere electoral rhetoric, but his first term demonstrated that he has the ability to follow through on his promises. His re-election would be devastating for democracy in the U.S., global stability, and for Mexico. Following his victory in 2016, the Mexican peso depreciated significantly, reflecting the uncertainty and risk associated with his administration.
Despite the uncertainty and the tight competition, several indicators point to a strengthening of Trump's candidacy in recent days. Major outlets like The Economist and The Wall Street Journal show a slight advantage for the president in their predictive models and polls. Betting houses also reflect a trend change in favor of Trump, creating a scenario where, if the trend continues, the current president would obtain the necessary Electoral College votes to secure his re-election.
Although there are still a few crucial days left before the election, the most recent data suggest a possible Trump victory. The actions and strategies of his rival, Kamala Harris, will be crucial to reversing this trend against him. With just two weeks to go until the election, the uncertainty and importance of these elections intensify, with potential repercussions both within the U.S. and globally, including Mexico.
