According to Pamela Starr, a Mexicanologist and professor of international relations, the Trump administration would be more problematic for Mexico than that of Harris. So far, Mexico has yielded to pressures from the Trump and Biden administrations to control migration, but these could increase under a Democratic or Republican administration.
On immigration issues, Trump is more controversial, while Democrats adopt a harder stance. Regarding the fight against drug trafficking, Trump is more confrontational, but Harris has a firmer hand. The impact of their policies would primarily fall on Mexico, affecting imports, migration, and remittances, which would complicate the Mexican economy.
The analyst from Moody's Analytics predicts that an increase in tariffs under a Trump government would negatively affect the Mexican economy. Additionally, it is suggested that Mexico could lose its geographical advantage in the relocation of companies due to possible trade conflicts.
The relationship between Mexico and the United States will be altered by the elections in its northern neighbor. Experts believe that a Harris government would make a difference in the dynamics between the two countries. Mexico is expected to consider possible additional scenarios beyond the bilateral context.
Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to establish contact with the campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, adopting a strategy different from that of López Obrador. The electoral landscape has Mexico and its government caught in the middle of global trade disputes between the United States and China.
Harris and Trump share the idea of confronting China, though with different approaches. Trump is perceived as unpredictable by China, while Harris is not perceived as such a belligerent figure. Trump's trade threats would affect Mexico, especially in the automotive sector. Biden has also proposed measures that could impact the Mexican economy.
Amid electoral uncertainty, Mexico is exposed to the fluctuations of the trade war between the two powers, which represents a significant challenge for its economy, highly dependent on the United States.
