The renegotiation of the Mexico-United States-Canada Agreement (USMCA) must take into account that the amendments promoted by the 4T government have made Mexico more susceptible to presidential decisions and have weakened the institutions that ensure its proper functioning, unlike previous agreements that responded to economies of different sizes but with similar market principles. This situation, although innovative for the United States, has already been experienced by the European Union for over 30 years.
In the field of trade negotiation, during the process of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas proposed to add a chapter on migration. This renegotiation is expected to involve the creation of new dispute resolution mechanisms to protect significant U.S. direct investments in Mexico, which exceed $145 billion.
Furthermore, it is anticipated that future trade agreements could include chapters related to national security and illegal migration flows, with potential trade sanctions in case of non-compliance. Trump has requested an evaluation of illegal migration flows and fentanyl from Mexico, Canada, and China, with recommendations for trade and national security measures to address what he considers an emergency.
The U.S. Congress is set to begin preparatory hearings in September with the goal of drafting and approving the Trade Promotion Act in 2026, thereby establishing the frameworks and timelines for future trade negotiations.
Since taking office in 2017, Trump has used trade policy as a fundamental pillar of his foreign policy and a key argument in his national security strategy. His decisions have aimed to generate a trade surplus for the United States with other countries, such as China, Mexico, and Canada, through bilateral negotiations and trade agreements.
