According to Víctor Ceja, chief economist at VALMEX Casa de Bolsa, everything is set for an adjustment in rates to occur at the meeting on February 6, likely by half a percentage point. However, the decision of the central bank will be largely conditioned by what happens in the coming days regarding the 25 percent tariffs that the United States intends to impose on Mexico.
Ceja explained that there are several possible scenarios in this regard. One extreme would be the immediate application of tariffs on Mexico and Canada this weekend, while the most likely scenario would be a gradual implementation of the tariffs, as has happened before.
In the event of an aggressive reaction in the exchange rate due to the tariffs, it could generate an impact on inflation and, therefore, on the monetary policy of the Bank of Mexico. Ceja pointed out that if the nominal interest rate drops to 8 percent, as expected, the real rate would still be restrictive, which could lead to a spike in inflation in the near future.
On the other hand, regarding the tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, there is a possibility of applying them both to Canada and Mexico, as well as to China. There are different tariff approaches under consideration, such as imposing tariffs on specific products from certain sectors.
In this context, the question arises whether the Bank of Mexico will decide to cut its interest rate, a topic that will generate debate at the meeting on February 6. The uncertainty regarding the tariffs and their impact on the Mexican economy adds complexity to this decision.
