The Bank of Mexico has made efforts to guide its actions based on the economic dynamics of the country, communicating measures based on inflation and seeking to keep expectations anchored around 3 percent. Despite challenges, such as the convergence of cycles between Mexico and the U.S., which has reduced the interest rate differential, the bank has worked to build its own decision-making framework.
In its latest meeting, the majority of the Board of Governors of the Bank of Mexico decided to reduce the reference rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to 9.5 percent. This measure is part of the fight against inflation and long-term expectations slightly above 3.5 percent. It is likely that in the next decision, the bank will again reduce its reference rate by 50 basis points.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve of the U.S. chose to keep its target range for the reference rate unchanged between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent. Measures taken by President Trump generated uncertainty in the markets and have implications for employment, production, and prices.
The Bank of Mexico will need to position itself in the face of a scenario of economic slowdown and a possible impact on the exchange rate. Although it usually follows measures similar to those of the Fed, there have been moments of decoupling justified by specific factors of the Mexican economy.
The current situation, marked by threats of tariffs in both countries, challenges both authorities to demonstrate independence in decision-making in the face of risk scenarios, where the slowdown and depreciation could influence future economic measures.
