The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning about the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, stating that Mexico will suffer a recession in its GDP of 1.3 percent in 2025 and 0.6 percent in 2026. Mexico is the G20 country that will be most affected by Trump's tariffs due to its dependence on the U.S. economy.
The OECD had to dramatically adjust its previous forecasts for Mexico, correcting by 2.5 percentage points for this year and 2.2 points for the next. Donald Trump recently announced a 25 percent tariff on Mexico and Canada due to fentanyl trafficking, which increases uncertainty in the Mexican economy.
Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, is confident in avoiding these tariffs, arguing the decrease in fentanyl seizures coming from Mexico and the lack of tariffs from Mexico to the U.S. in response. However, the possibility of making reciprocal decisions remains open if the U.S. implements tariffs on certain Mexican products.
It is estimated that inflation in Mexico will remain high despite the economic recession, reaching 4.4 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026. The OECD suggests that if Trump reverses the tariffs, the Mexican economy could grow in 2025 and 2026, although at minimal rates.
The OECD calls on Trump to reduce trade tensions and lower existing tariffs, which would help improve growth prospects. On the other hand, if the situation worsens and the U.S. increases tariffs, Mexico would be the most harmed, with a GDP decline that could reach 1.3 percent in three years.
