The economies of Mexico and the world are on alert due to the uncertainty generated by two main factors: the fear of a recession caused by the tariffs imposed by the United States and the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine. ATFX LATAM Financial Markets analyst Felipe Mendoza warned that the specter of recession is once again present, as the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced a 2.1% decline in the first quarter of 2025, worsening the previous projection of -1.6%.
On the other hand, the war between Russia and Ukraine and the possible conditions of a ceasefire agreement are adding more uncertainty to financial markets and the global economy in general. A call between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has generated expectations and doubts about the outcome of the conflict. U.S. officials have confirmed that the dialogue will address the situation in Ukraine, with Putin pressing for a temporary halt to the supply of U.S. weapons.
It is speculated that assistance would be resumed on the condition of a peace agreement that limits Ukraine's military capacity, but the Ukrainian government has made it clear that it will not accept compromises that restrict its sovereignty or its ability to join military alliances. Despite this, not all countries in the European region agree with the positions taken.
Regarding the tariffs announced by President Trump, the regime will come into effect on April 2. Each country, including Mexico and Canada, will receive tariff rates that could be lower than expected in some cases. However, the specific tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum could add to the general tariffs, which could put additional pressure on industrial sectors and exporters. Despite these measures, some assert that there are no reasons for a recession, trying to dispel fears of an economic slowdown.
Together, these geopolitical and economic situations are creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in international markets and pose challenges for both governments and companies operating globally.
