According to some analysts, the Mexican economy could be in recession unless there is a sudden change in trend, which is considered unlikely. In Mexico, there is a Business Cycle Dating Committee composed of seven experts responsible for determining periods of recession and economic expansion. This committee uses indicators such as the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) to assess the economic situation of the country.
The IGAE, which resembles the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has been declining month by month since July 2023, suggesting a possible recession. Other economic indicators also show a negative trend, such as industrial activity and total imports, which have been below 100 points for several months.
In Mexico, the criteria for defining a recession include the depth, duration, and diffusion of the decline in economic activity. Although a recession has not yet been officially confirmed, various indicators point in that direction. The number of permanent insured individuals in the IMSS has begun to decrease, while the GDP estimate shows a quarterly growth of only 0.2%.
The creation of the Business Cycle Dating Committee in Mexico follows the model of a similar committee in the United States, which is responsible for defining economic cycles in that country. In summary, although it has not been officially confirmed, the Mexican economy appears to be heading towards a recession based on the evolution of various economic indicators in recent months.
