According to Banco Base, in the first nine months of the year, the economy has accumulated an advance of only 0.41%. Yesterday, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) warned that the economy could grow below its estimate of 0.6% after revising the data for the third quarter of the year, which would be a central factor of downward pressure on inflation. This Friday, INEGI confirmed that the economy retreated in the third quarter by 0.3% year-on-year due to the collapse of the industrial sector, a scenario that seems to be repeating towards the end of the year, pressuring the government's targets. The anticipated decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since late October was confirmed this morning with the release of September data, showing an annual and monthly drop of 0.6%, mainly explained by the fall in the industrial sector, which fell 3.3% compared to August. Furthermore, in the September data, a greater weakness is observed in the monthly comparison, as all economic activities show declines: the most pronounced is in the primary or agriculture sector, down 4.9%, 0.4 in industry, and 0.5% in services. Thus, in the quarterly comparison, the industry had a collapse of 1.5%, followed by secondary activities, which grew by only 0.2%, while primary activities achieved a growth of 3.5%. INEGI anticipates stagnation of the Mexican economy in October. The data are generating alerts as the industry shows no signs of recovery, and according to the latest INEGI estimate published yesterday, October is also expected to show stagnation across all economic activity, pressuring the government's growth targets that had estimated an improvement for the end of the year. It is worth remembering that the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit estimates a growth range between 0.5% and 1.5%.
