This would benefit Mexico, which needs clarity for investment to reactivate. The engines for the coming year, according to analysts, lie in a rebound in exports and investment. Even so, the general outlook is clear: for Mexico, 2025 is already lost in terms of growth, and the economy will depend on external factors to hope for a better 2026. Looking towards 2026, analysts are optimistic thanks to exports and investment, but they do not see a rebound in consumption. During the presentation held for the press on Thursday, Gutiérrez explained that both investment and consumption, two key growth drivers, are stagnant. Public spending also does not act as a buffer. "There is talk of the Mexico Plan, but there are no yet visible results that give peace of mind to local businesspeople and investors." External demand, and in particular, the manufacturing push linked to the United States, have been the true safeguard for the Mexican economy this year. Consumption is also not helping: the fall in remittances and the loss of purchasing power of these transfers directly hit household spending, which had been an important support for consumption in recent years. Edgar Amador is annoyed with Banxico for its downward adjustment to the growth forecast. For the firm, it was exports that prevented the Mexican economy from collapsing as predicted at the beginning of the year. Hope is pinned on the global environment stabilizing and allowing for firmer investment decisions. A possible additional boost could come from the World Cup, which would boost tourist arrivals and some activity in the services sector. That sector, they say, will also be key to sustaining activity in 2026. The outlook for 2026 is somewhat more encouraging, although it depends almost entirely on external factors. In contrast, consumption would not have a solid rebound. The engines for the next year, according to analysts, are based on a rebound in exports and investment. With that phrase, Ramsé Gutiérrez, Senior Vice President and Co-Director of Investments at Franklin Templeton, summarized the firm's view on one of the most important variables in the Mexican economy. Migration issues will continue to affect remittances, and this limits the recovery of internal spending. "2025 is a lost year for growth." This lack of clear signals keeps the economy from having an internal impulse capable of moving activity," he assured. The optimistic scenario includes a relatively quick definition of the USMCA, a moderate rebound after such a weak year, and an additional boost from the elections in the United States, which could push their growth above 2%.
