The sharp cut by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to its economic projection for this year is already creating tensions for the National Palace, as the expectation has moved considerably away from the scenario defended by the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) of Edgar Amador. According to the central bank led by Victoria Rodríguez, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will only grow by 0.3% by the end of the year, considering a range of 0.1 and 0.5%, after the economy contracted in the third quarter and pressures are expected for the end of the year. For the Finance Secretariat, this data is problematic as it comes right after Amador Zamora's participation in the G20, which took place this weekend in South Africa, where he sought to promote the message that there is economic stability in Mexico despite trade tensions with Trump. The SHCP's estimate contemplates a growth range between 0.5 and 1.5%, with 1% being the intermediate level expected. Just a month ago, the agency was defending the resilience of the internal market to achieve a growth higher than estimated by the market. Banxico sees more pressures for underlying inflation but defends the rate-cutting cycle: "It is consistent". However, the outlook outlined by the most recent INEGI figures reveals that the true engine for the Mexican economy was the external sector, via exports, which grew 7.5% in the first nine months of the year year-on-year. Economic analysts agree that this surprising advance—since a retreat was expected due to Donald Trump's tariff threats—avoided a recessionary scenario for Mexico estimated by consensus at the beginning of the year. Now the consensus points to a growth of only 0.5% by the end of 2025, remaining even slightly above the central bank's estimate, which was cut from the 0.6% estimated in August. Furthermore, for next year, while the central bank's projections are better, with an expected range of 0.4 to 0.8%, that is, the point estimate is 1.1%, it is still below its historical average, which is 1.9%. That improvement, according to specialists, is based on the expectation of less uncertainty regarding the trade relationship with the United States, but it is not without risks. Banxico warns of greater economic weakness and the discussion about rate cuts is expanded. Thus, the new reading from Banxico, which was anticipated since its minutes published on November 20, strongly clashes with Amador's intentions to generate a perception of greater economic calm that will guide the promised fiscal consolidation in the short term. Journalist Pablo Hiriat affirmed on his social networks that this adjustment will bring "consequences", alluding to movements at the Finance Secretariat. "The Secretary of the Treasury, Edgar Amador, is thinking about what he will do in the next few hours or days," he wrote.
