It appears to be a last-minute change, especially given the current economic situation, with weak growth and an appreciated exchange rate. The bank is waiting for potential interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which it believes might give it more room to maneuver. Banxico does not want to tie its own hands and prefers to keep the door open for a March decision. For analysts, this shift in the forward guidance is contradictory, as it simultaneously warns of greater inflationary pressures, leading it to push its 3% inflation target from the end of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027. "We think it could be too hasty to cut rates without assessing second-order effects," said Paulina Anciola, an economist at Banamex. The key lies in a change in the paragraph that serves as guidance for the market. "Going forward, the Governing Board will consider making additional adjustments to the target rate," the bank communicated this Thursday, comparing it to what was said in December: "Going forward, the Governing Board will consider the timing of making additional adjustments to the target rate." Food-related prices are not relenting, forcing Banxico to postpone its inflation target by a year. Felipe Juncal, an economist at Citi, told LPO in an interview that in their December guidance, they spoke specifically about evaluating the time to add more adjustments, "now it makes us think that the door is open to resume the rate-cutting cycle for March," he said. Marco Oviedo, an XP Investments strategist, pointed out that the surprise in this guidance comes from the Monetary Program, published just at the end of January, which outlined a more gradual path of cuts. "This guidance doesn't make much sense thinking that inflationary risks persist, especially for the underlying rate, which has remained above 3%," said Gabriela Siller, director of Banco Base. Despite these signals, analyses from Citi, Bx+, or Banamex state that between February and March there could be surprises that lead the central bank to extend the cuts a bit more. Discrepancies between Banxico and specialists continue. While its most recent monetary pause was in line with market expectations, it surprised with a more "dovish" forward guidance, anticipating cuts sooner than expected. Analysts consulted by LPO agree that the tone of the central bank's communiqué from last Thursday opens the door for a March cut, contrary to market expectations, which anticipate one in May—according to the latest Citi survey—due to inflationary shocks expected in the first part of the year. "For the next decision, which is in March, we would see the peak in inflation coming from the impacts of the IEPS and tariffs.
