The Government of Mexico maintained its economic growth forecast for 2026 unchanged at between 1.8% and 2.8%, and raised the forecast for 2027 to a range of between 1.9% and 2.9%, up from a previous range of 1.5% to 2.5%, according to the “General Economic Policy Guidelines 2027” presented this Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).
In macroeconomic variables, the update worsens the inflation forecast for 2026, raising it from 3% to 3.7% by the end of the year, while for 2027 it keeps it at 3%, in line with the target of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
In public finances, the fiscal deficit would decrease from 4.1% of GDP in 2026 to 3.5% in 2027, while public debt would rise to 54.7% of GDP in 2026 and to 55.0% of GDP in 2027, above the previously projected trajectory of 52.3%.
Despite these modifications, and amid the general rise in global crude oil prices due to the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, Mexico does not foresee changing its economic growth estimates for this year.
The projected improvement for 2027 is based on a gradual rebound in private investment, as companies adapt to the new regulatory environment and the review of the treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (T-MEC) advances.
Likewise, it is expected that public and mixed investment linked to the Plan Mexico, as well as infrastructure projects, will expand productive capacity, improve connectivity, and reduce bottlenecks in strategic sectors.
The SHCP also estimates that private consumption will continue to be supported by the growth of real wages, job creation, and social programs.
Additionally, it anticipates that exports will be favored due to Mexico maintaining a relatively more competitive effective tariff rate compared to other countries.
The document acknowledges a complex international environment, marked by geopolitical conflicts, disruptions in trade routes, and changes in the United States' trade policy.
However, it points out that Mexico has solid foundations, a resilient financial system, and a strategic position in North American value chains.
In the oil sector, Finance raised the expected average price for 2026 from $54.9 to $77.3 per barrel, given the rebound observed since late February due to the conflict in the Middle East.
It also estimated that crude oil production will be 1.794 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.806 million in 2027.
In the foreign exchange area, Finance expects the exchange rate to be at 18 pesos per dollar in 2026 and at 18.5 units per dollar by the end of 2027.
