Last week, the negative behavior of the Mexican peso reflected the possible implications of a Donald Trump victory in the United States presidential elections, according to CIBanco. The firm points out that in previous weeks, global financial markets were relatively calm regarding the U.S. presidential race. Now, the Mexican peso begins to absorb the possibility of a Trump victory. CIBanco suggests that a Harris presidency would be more similar to the current scenario, while Trump's more radical proposals could be delayed or softened.
The financial firm explains that the situation will also depend on the outcome of the elections in the U.S. Congress and who controls the two chambers. CIBanco mentions that the market usually anticipates events, leading to new valuations of risk assets with increases in volatility.
According to CIBanco, Trump has presented political proposals that could weaken the Mexican peso, such as his stance on trade policy, which includes imposing high tariffs on all imports, even from important trading partners like Mexico. Additionally, there are concerns about his focus on renegotiating the USMCA instead of reviewing it in 2026, as scheduled.
As the election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, uncertainty about a possible second term for the Republican increases. Although the contest seems tight, with almost equal chances for both candidates, recent betting markets and polls show a slight inclination towards Trump as a possible winner, the firm highlights.
CIBanco acknowledges that a renegotiation of the USMCA could jeopardize the progress made and lead to new restrictive measures. Concern around the Mexican peso could persist until election day, generating episodes of volatility and pressure on the currency. Economic figures in the U.S., as well as the geopolitical context in the Middle East, could influence the behavior of the peso, but the electoral process in the U.S. will continue to dominate the scene in the coming weeks, concludes CIBanco.
