According to the Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere presented during the IMF Annual Meeting, an additional slowdown in economic growth in Mexico is expected to 1.3 percent by 2025. This figure reflects the planned fiscal adjustment and a weaker external environment. Regarding inflation, it is estimated to reach the Bank of Mexico's target of 3.2 percent in 2025, down from the 4.5 percent projected for 2024.
As for the International Monetary Fund's recommendations for Mexico, there is a priority need to strengthen the rule of law and control corruption. It is emphasized that reforms in these areas should not be postponed, as inaction could be more costly in the long run. Other suggestions include mobilizing non-oil revenues to finance infrastructure, health, and education, strengthening public investment, improving social protection programs, increasing private participation in key sectors, and promoting financial development and inclusion.
Regarding the Federal Budget for 2025 for Mexico, the importance of containing a credible plan that includes a medium-term fiscal consolidation with the necessary resource mobilization is emphasized. Rodrigo Valdés, Director of the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF, mentioned that despite the expansionary fiscal policy, a GDP growth of 1.5 percent in 2024 and 1.3 percent in 2025 is expected for Mexico, due to the slowdown in exports and the restrictive monetary stance.
Valdés also emphasized the importance of addressing bottlenecks in infrastructure and energy, as well as the need to prioritize reforms to improve the rule of law and combat corruption. It was noted that violence also has an impact on economic growth, and that reducing the gap between homicide suffering and the global average could increase economic growth in the region. In this regard, the importance of investing in knowledge on this topic was emphasized.
