Citibanamex analysts explain that the unexpected upward surprise in the Mexican economy is due to greater resilience in consumption and investment than estimated, possibly reflecting lagged effects from the increase in public spending in the first half of the year. Despite alerts of a greater slowdown in 2025, with a confirmed IMF cut to 1.3%, analysts have adjusted their growth estimate for the year-end, increasing it from 1.4% to 1.5%.
The government's projection for the end of 2024, which is double that revised by analysts, is not expected to be reached according to current estimates. The Mexican economy has experienced a clear slowdown from late 2023 to the first half of 2024. Specialists anticipate a loss of dynamism in productive activity, especially after the completion of infrastructure works from the previous administration.
The slowdown in investment also worries experts, who foresee that it will be affected by high interest rates and uncertainty related to the internal political landscape and the change of government in the United States. Despite these signs of slowdown, the Mexican economy maintained its resilience during the third quarter of 2024 with a growth of 1.5% annually, exceeding market expectations.
According to the timely estimate from Inegi, the three main economic activities collectively accelerated compared to previous quarters. Primary activities, or the agricultural sector, increased by 3.8%; secondary activities, or services, grew by 2%; and tertiary activities recorded a positive variation of 0.5%.
