According to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, Mexico's economy will grow above the 1.3 percent forecasted by analysts, labeling this figure as "pessimistic." The Undersecretary of Finance, Edgar Amador, ensured that there are no signs of economic recession in the short and medium term. He emphasized that the country's economic growth data is solid, having grown 1.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, surpassing expectations.
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography reported this improvement on October 30. It was highlighted that the flexible exchange rate regime is a crucial factor that helps the economy face external shocks, as explained by Amador. This regime, along with international reserves at historical levels, healthy public finances, and moderate public debt, has been a fundamental support for the Mexican economy.
The Budgetary Revenue Stabilization Fund, with its 51 billion pesos, also plays an important role. Rodrigo Mariscal, from the Economic Planning Unit, mentioned the strength that this fund provides in balancing public finances during times of revenue decline. Other factors such as debt rebalancing and oil coverage also contribute to financial shielding.
Regarding forecasts, the International Monetary Fund predicts a growth of 1.3 percent for the Mexican economy in 2025, while the World Bank is a little more optimistic with 1.5 percent. In contrast, the Bank of Mexico has been more pessimistic, reducing its growth forecast to 1.2 percent due to weakness and uncertainty in national economic activity.
In relation to public revenues until September 2024, the Ministry of Finance reported that an amount exceeding the planned was obtained, reaching 5 trillion 624 billion 393 million pesos. Despite the decrease in oil and tax revenues, non-oil revenues played a crucial role in rescuing public finances. The net public sector debt closed September at 16 trillion 884 billion 911 million pesos, equivalent to 49.2 percent of GDP, according to official data.
