The economy of Mexico has managed to recover from the slowdown it experienced in early 2024 and, according to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), will not fall into recession or economic decline in 2025, as some analysts had warned. The Undersecretary of Finance, Edgar Amador Zamora, stated that Mexican economic growth was 1.4% in the first nine months of 2024 and that there is no real data suggesting a recession.
At a press conference on the Quarterly Report of Public Finances, the official highlighted that Mexico has a solid and orderly economic-financial scenario, with good prospects for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, wage mass, and inflation. He assured that there are no indicators suggesting economic recession in the short or medium term and that all variables point towards continuous economic expansion.
The growth of the Mexican economy has accelerated in recent quarters, reaching an increase of 1.5% in the third quarter and 1% in the second quarter of 2024. This performance has been driven by high levels of confidence in both the business sector and consumers, maintaining dynamism in consumption and investment. The private sector has led the growth of investment, which increased by 8.2% annually, while private consumption grew by 3.8% annually, accumulating four consecutive years above its historical level.
The unemployment rate has remained at a minimum of 2.7% between January and August, with an increase of 817,000 employed people in the same period. In light of pessimistic estimates from some analysts predicting growth of 1.5% for Mexico by the end of 2024, Rodrigo Mariscal Paredes, from the Economic Planning Unit of the SHCP, discredited those figures.
Mariscal explained that for the economy to grow only 1.5%, it would have to fall by 0.2% between the third and fourth quarters of the year, which he considers unlikely given the current trend of expansion in investment, employment, consumption, and economic activity in the country. If there is no growth in the last months of the year, it would be difficult to reach that figure, and experts might have to adjust their forecasts. In his words, 'There are two types of forecasts: those that are wrong and those that are lucky.'
